🔗 Share this article Trump's Ambitious Prediction on US Oil Funding in Venezuelan Draws Expert Caution. Energy analysts have expressed deep skepticism regarding bullish predictions that US large firms will swiftly pump billions of dollars to fix Venezuela's crumbling production facilities. Demand for Absolute Guarantees Without an “iron-clad guarantee” of full reimbursement from the US federal government, experts believe international firms to move with significant hesitation. “It seems too early to discuss any potential investments,” a representative said this weekend. The aggressive timeline of less than a year and a half was publicly suggested. Nevertheless, expert analyses paint a different picture. A Likely Outlook “Chances are going to take multiple years for any significant output increase,” commented one chief investment officer. The analysis indicates oil companies would likely spend: The first year: Securing new operating agreements. Year two: Investing in reconstruction of equipment. Year three: Reaching a position to meaningfully increase yield. This would lead to an boost of around 500,000 bpd maybe by 2029. Desire Versus Willingness for Risk There is a critical difference between companies' curiosity and their appetite to invest substantially. “In my view their curiosity is an eight, on a scale of one to 10. But their willingness is a four or five, because there is a lack of certainty yet.” Veteran observers in the country reinforce this sentiment. The thinking is that firms will publicly call it fantastic while actually moving with great care. The Vast Cost The required investment would be colossal. University estimates suggest that increasing production by between half a million and a million bpd would require in excess of $10 billion in investment over two to three years. But, rebuilding output to peak levels of around 2.5 million barrels per day could require a staggering $80 billion to $90 billion over six or seven years. The Pending Question of Taxpayer Funding The suggestion of oil giants being paid back by the federal government has been repeatedly raised. However, concrete details on this proposal have not yet been provided. Without a solid plan is the primary impediment behind the industry's hesitation. Operators seek guarantees against sovereign risk and the risk that a different administration could cancel any promise. “They must be protected from political change, that we’ve experienced in Venezuela previously.” Therefore, while political optimism runs high, the practical challenges suggest a road of extreme caution for any significant financial commitment in the Venezuelan oil sector.